Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Thank God Obama is the President of the USA

Last week I was surfing the news channels for some news on Satyam when Obama’s speech was being telecast live in one of the channels and I continue to watch him. I found quite a few things very impressive about his speech.
He has clear priorities, vision and action plan.
He is fundamentally strong, has clarity of thought and he knows what he is talking about.
He is analytical and willing to tackle difficult situations rather than avoiding them or sweeping them under the carpet. He proactively responded to his critics and explained why he was doing what he was doing.
He set very realistic expectation and didn’t paint a rosy picture as most politicians tend to do. He is aware of his responsibility and obligations.
He is not constrained by his tenure and thinks long-term.
He is honest, well intentioned and has courage of conviction. He admitted that it was frustrating bailing out AIG but there was no better choice left.
His speech was in complete contrast with that of our politicians during this election time. Our politicians are engaged in mud slinging or rather it is more than mud that is getting slung.
He emphasized on the need to improve governance especially in the financial sector, improve standard of education and making it accessible to all and ensure good medical facilities for all besides renewable energy and another important issue. He said that for long-term competitiveness they needed engineers and scientists. We should learn from this direction that USA is taking rather then blindly follow the west in all these aspects. Our politicians support investment through p-notes instead of bringing in complete transparency into all financial transactions. Avoidance of tax by innovative methods should completely be stopped. Education and health have been completely commercialized. One is linked to our children and the other is to our health and people will do everything within their capability to ensure that they get the best. Because of this sentiment today there is open loot in these two sectors. In education it is not just the admission or annual fees but every possible source of income that includes books, uniform, and transport is being used to the hilt. In one very famous school students can’t bring food from home and are forced to buy it on the school premises. Even at this time of recession when many have got pink slips or a cut in their salary, most schools have increased fees according to their sweet will. There seems to be no restrictions. Parents have little choice but to pay through their nose. During our days we hardly used to buy a new book as any book once released used to be prescribed for a few years and one could manage with old books. These days one can find new versions released every year with minor change or rearrangement of chapters so that every year students have to buy a new set of books. When I joined IIM in 1992 the year the fees were increased from Rs.6000 to Rs.15000 for the first time. I had already worked for 2 years and I thought I could manage Rs.30000 in two years though it was much more than what it used to be. Again next year it was increased to Rs.27000. Thanks to some stipend for summer training, some arrear from SAIL and additional help from my elder brothers that helped me to gather this unplanned amount. In the current situation people from similar background can’t afford to go to IIM. The financial help provided by the IIMs has also increased but I don’t know if it is sufficient. Just a few decades back the only thing that mattered was one’s merit and if one had that he could aspire to study in the best institutions. Today things have changed and very soon higher education will be out of the reach of the poor. While giving an example of how one shouldn’t compromise on long-term vision and rather should forego a few luxuries if there is a need to tighten the belt Obama mentioned about education of children. That reminded me the only focus that my parents had was our education. When my father retired in 1971 pension was meager and ours was a large family. I was not old enough to start going to school. The only asset he had built was a house at Baripada, a small town in Orissa which had decent educational facilities. Because of that vision and commitment today all of us are reasonably well established. The teachers in those days used to go out of their way to encourage and help meritorious students. All of us have benefited from the fact that teachers were willing to give us tuitions for free or taking payment only when we received our scholarship. These days tuitions and coaching are also big business. Today the money I spend in one year for my daughter who has just joined LKG in a reasonably inexpensive school in Hyderabad is more than what I might have spent till I completed my engineering from REC Rourkela. When USA is worried about their education system and wants to change it drastically why do we continue to ape their model?
The current scenario in medical is extremely disturbing. In the last few decades the number of diseases and their frequency of occurrence have gone up many folds. Though we grew up in a much smaller town (the first city I visited was Ranchi after appearing in my matriculation exam) perhaps the environment and quality of life were much better. During our childhood days there were large unoccupied fields everywhere and we used to play a lot apart from other exercises like walking and cycling to school or anywhere else. These days I stay in a very low profile but spacious apartment with lot of open space compared to most flats. But even then there is not enough place for the children to play. My daughter who has just joined LKG needs to go to school at around 8 AM and shall be back around 3 PM. Isn’t it a little too much for a kid of 4 years? When we contacted the school authorities though they agreed with our view point we were told that in most cases both the parents are working they have this extended time. My son has been in the same school for the last 6 years and I know that this school is actually better than most others in terms of homework etc. However, I wonder if the need of the child shouldn’t take precedence over everything else. But barring one or two exception most schools are like that; so one doesn’t have a choice really. I am not sure if not having a TV was actually a blessing in disguise. These days the number of tests that a child appears in one class is perhaps more than that I might have taken to complete professional courses. Lack of open spaces and fresh air, pollution, and a stressful lifestyle that starts quite early have added to sickness and diseases that were unheard of. Decent medical facilities have become very expensive. One wonders if the consultant doctors in the private hospitals have their targets for room occupancy, expensive tests done and overall revenue generation. Most doctors either own or have some arrangement with test centers and medicine stores. Just in case you have a medical insurance, the doctors will ensure that they squeeze you as much as possible. The doctors seem to be greedier than the business leaders in the corporate sector. In fact, most good hospitals are actually managed by corporate groups and with complete deterioration of standard in govt run hospitals people don’t have a choice.
When US president is talking about complete revamp of their educational and medical system I think it is time we stopped and learnt from their experience as there is no point in following a path that has not led to desirable results. I hope that our leaders will take a cue from Obama and seriously look into the issues of education, health and corruption.
Obama also talked about moving towards saving and investment culture from borrow and spend culture. Unfortunately we in India are bent upon doing just the reverse with ample support from the credit cards issued by the foreign banks. Long back Yudhisthir had replied to the yakshya that the happiest person is the one who doesn’t have any debt and had saved his brothers.
Lastly one hopes that with increased focus on domestic front and a true democratic spirit that Obama has USA would stop establishing its hegemony over the whole world by hook or by crook. While having a strong democracy for their own country most of its leaders have supported oppressive autocratic govt. throughout the world. Most of the today’s terrorist organizations are actually like Frankenstein created by its explicit and tacit support. Look at how Pakistan has become a victim of its own dangerous game. The means and end can never be separated as the end is essentially a manifestation of the means that one adopts. One hopes that USA will play a more responsible role and will help the world to become a better place. Hence, a truly democratic leader like Obama is good news for all countries including India.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Nano makes us proud

Nano is a big achievement not only for Mr. Ratan Tata and the TATA group but also for India. Nano has been launched at a time such that it can change the rules of the game in the Global Automobile Industry. As an Indian I am very proud of it as despite all the developments in the last few decades there are very few occasions where we can take credit for originality. We the people of India seem to be comfortable following the developed countries. Cielo was the first foreign car to be launched in India. Later on I joined Daewoo Motors and when I visited South Korea I realized it was one of their very old models and was being phased out there. Today we have many western models but the overall business strategy of these MNCs is not very different. Despite all the hypes about Indian IT industry we are hardly doing anything that can be considered game changing. The industry is very profitable as there is no capital investment, there is tax benefit as it is export oriented and the earning is in dollars whereas most of the expenses are in INR. Over the last few decades the basic business model has not changed even though the revenue has gone up many folds. On the other hand there could be a little shift towards BPO related income. There are Indians in MNCs who have contributed immensely to this knowledge industry. But the Indian companies are comfortable with the low risk and high return model where the payback is almost immediate. Nano has forced even developed countries around the world to take notice of our engineering capability. Day before yesterday even the president of US emphasized the fact that a country needs good engineers and scientists to remain competitive in the long run.

Looking at the increased demand for fuel and its prices, stupendous rise in pollution across the globe, traffic congestion in many cities in India and abroad, Nano couldn’t have come at a better time. Of course, it always could have been launched earlier. I hope that the fuel efficiency and emission standard of this car can be further improved. At present most of us may need a bigger car for weekend travel needs but Nano can very well meet the requirement of working days. I hope that our government will work with equal commitment and enthusiasm to improve our public transport system so that most of our travel related problems will be addressed in the coming years.

News and analyst reports

In good old days we used consider news reporters as reliable source of information assuming that these guys must have done their homework before broadcasting anything to the general public. They shape public opinion or significantly influence the same. So one would expect that they would be aware of their responsibility that goes with the power they have. But unfortunately there are too many channels resulting in too much competition and as the saying goes “everything is fair in love and war” and competition in any field has become akin to war. So instead of reporting news at times they create news or at least sensationalize it without any consideration of ethics, truth and fairness.

This was very well depicted in the movie “Mumbai Meri Jaan”. This movie besides other things has brought out well this aspect of our current society. This movie reminded me of an interview by a TV reporter just after the Tsunami. This reporter was interviewing a lady on live TV who had come to Thiruventhapuram along with her husband and son. This was their first trip in the last 25 years and it was extremely unfortunate that she had lost both of them in the tsunami that took the whole nation by surprise. The reporter was asking her if she would remember this day for the rest of her life. It was so disgusting and sickening. Another incident was the bomb blast in the local trains of Mumbai. One lady who is a very senior member of a TV channel was proclaiming that this was huge and you could see from her face that she was pretty excited perhaps because they had got something to report about for next 24 hours or may be more.

Satyam episode actually opened my eyes to the possibility of unreliability and falsehood in reporting by newspapers, TV channels and analysts. I was very surprised to see The Economic Times resorting to such reporting day after day. I read in one of the blogs that Infosys has holding in this group and hence it didn’t flinch away from reporting lies and damn lies. I am not sure whether Infosys has any holding in Times group or not but possibility of some hidden agenda can’t be ruled out. Now there is an analyst who felt that there might not be any bidder for Satyam and his latest claim is that Satyam is overstaffed by more than 18000 employees. I don’t know how these figures are arrived at. Once you mention a specific number it is very tempting to assume that the concerned person must have done his analysis and to take the figure for granted.

Let us do some simple calculations and let us take Infosys which is considered to be the best in the Indian industry as the reference. Infosys declared its result yesterday and its annual revenue is USD 4.66 billion and its current manpower stands at 105000. If we discount the manipulation that was done by Raju Satyam’s revenue should have been USD 1.8 billion. After his shocking confession in January quite a few clients have cancelled their contracts and currently the revenue is USD 1.5 billion. More such cancellations are expected that may bring down the revenue to USD 1.3 billion. The current manpower at Satyam is 43500. Rest 4500 includes subsidiaries, contract and subcontracts. I hope that the number given by Infosys doesn’t include contracts and subcontracts. Taking a simple proportion the number works out to be 40550, 33800, and 29300 respectively. If we allow some margin for economy of scale that Infosys enjoys and also the fact that it has higher billing rate then number could be 35000 as things stand today or 32000 in the worst case scenario. So the excess resources using Infosys as reference is only 11000 to 12000.

However, we still need news-reporting and analyst reports, but there is a need to use our own judgment or cross check its veracity. Ignorance may not be bliss but believing in something that is not true can also be dangerous.